SPF Panelists' Forecasting Methods: See this paper for the results of a special survey on the methods of professional forecasters.Īcademic Bibliography: Contains a comprehensive list of academic articles that discuss or use the Survey of Professional Forecasters.ĭates of Previous Surveys: Shows the release dates of previous surveys.Įxamples of Survey Forms: See a recent survey form and several forms from the past. For an article summarizing the results through the survey of 2010 Q2, see Realistic Evaluation of Real-Time Forecasts in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. (60 KB, 11 pages last update: August 9, 2018)Įconomic Insights article: " Fifty Years of the Survey of Professional Forecasters"įorecast Error Statistics: Shows the latest statistics on the accuracy of the projections for most variables in the survey. on iPhone/iPad tap the Share icon on the bottom bar for iPhones / at the top on iPad.
Forecast bar update history Pc#
Bookmarking the page to check for updates later: on PC press buttons Ctrl + D or click the star next to the browser bar at the top. Only mortgage rates forecast and history are updated weekly.
(390 KB, 62 pages last update: October 16, 2019)ĭata Sources and Descriptions: Shows the specifications of the economic variables being forecast. All forecasts are updated on daily basis. Inflation Targeting ( Fourth Quarter 2007) Resourcesĭocumentation: Provides information on all variables, transformations, and files in the survey. Growth in House Prices (First-Quarter Surveys)Įxtended Forecasts for Real GDP, Unemployment, and 3-Month and 10-Year Treasuries ( Fourth Quarter 2009)Įxtended Horizon for Real GDP, Unemployment, and 3-Month and 10-Year Treasuries ( Third Quarter 2009)Įxtended Horizon for Real GDP and Unemployment ( Second Quarter 2009) Long-Run Inflation Forecasts and the FOMC's Longer-Run Goal for Inflation ( Second Quarter 2012) (731 KB, 46 pages last update: November 30, 2017) Special Variables and Special Questions Includes chart and data.Įrrata: Shows corrections to the historical data. The quarter in which the survey is taken. Index: The probability of a decline in real GDP in the quarter following Short-Term and Long-Term Inflation Forecasts: Expected inflation over the next year and the next 10 years. Probability Variables: Excel file containing mean probabilities of annual inflation and output growth falling into various ranges and the mean probability that quarter-over-quarter output growth will be negative. Download all variables: mean, median, cross-sectional dispersion, and individual forecasts
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